Buck Harvey: Of Dirk’s two paths, one is to be David

DALLAS — He’s a one-time MVP, and he’s been called a longtime softie.

He’s a 7-footer with unusual gifts, and he’s been the superstar of a Texas franchise with a history of unusual losses.

Now he has a 3-0 second-round lead on Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, and what comes next will change Dirk Nowitzki.

Lose as no one has in NBA history, and his image will be indelible.

Win, and he’s David Robinson in 1999.

Nowitzki won’t exactly be Robinson, of course. Nowitzki remains the Mavericks’ scoring leader, and he was Friday with 32 points. What was more impressive that night — his four 3-pointers, or his late, left-handed runner for the lead?

“Just about everything that happened down the stretch,” Rick Carlisle said afterward, “was a direct result of him either scoring the ball or making a play to get somebody a shot.”

Robinson wasn’t that after Tim Duncan showed up. When the Spurs swept the Lakers in 1999, also in the second round, a Sports Illustrated headline announced, “Substance over Style.” Duncan’s outstretched arms were on the cover.

Still, Robinson was integral for a dominating group that went 15-2 on the way to a title. In another sweep, in the next round against Portland, Robinson was the best Spur.

Along the way, he shed the baggage that Nowitzki carries now, including his own disappointment at the hands of Don Nelson and a small Golden State team. The change began a dozen years ago, when the Lakers looked the way they do now.

Then, the season before Phil Jackson arrived, a young Kobe couldn’t correct the confusion any more than an old one has in the first three games. But there are differences, since the current Lakers are the two-time defending champions with a few things to lean on.

Two of them: They blew leads in Game 1 and Game 3.

Bryant isn’t “sick in the head,” as he put it, for thinking a comeback is possible. Nowitzki seems to understand all of this, too. Nowitzki takes nothing for granted.

Part of that is the humble Nowitzki profile. Anyone who has known him has liked him, and he’s handled failure without blaming others or lashing out at his critics. Maybe nothing makes him seem more like Robinson than this.

But Nowitzki is also wary for a reason. From the 2006 Finals collapse to the following season, when he was presented the MVP trophy shortly after losing in the first round with a 67-win team, he’s become the figurehead of a franchise that continues to win 50 games every season and nothing else.

Last year was the same. Just as his playoff numbers have always increased over his regular-season ones, they did against the Spurs when he averaged 27 points. But when the Mavericks lost as the favorites, the details of failure didn’t matter. As it was with Robinson, it’s his franchise, and he’s the star, and he owns what happens.

He will own success, too. If sweeping the Lakers is just a start, since the Mavericks would still face both the conference and NBA Finals, Robinson began the same way.

And if Nowitzki eventually draws the Heat, as he did in 2006? The nation will be rooting for him, even with Mark Cuban and Jason Terry on his side, against LeBron James.

That’s getting ahead of everything, including today. Nowitzki understood that just minutes after Friday’s win. Then, with Dallas fans celebrating, Nowitzki saw the danger in a 3-0 advantage that no NBA team has ever lost.

“I’ve seen a lot in this league already,” Nowitzki said, “and I don’t want to be the first one.”

Yes. The other path would be better.

bharvey@express-news.net

Spurs rising in nearly every power ranking with playoffs approaching

The Spurs’ recent four-game winning streak has caught the attention of the basketball pundits across the blogosphere.

San Antonio moved up in the weekly power rankings of every poll we surveyed except one.

But in all cases, the Spurs are ranked behind the Chicago Bulls, who are the unanimous choice in every poll this week as the league’s No. 1 team.

Here’s a sampling of what our pollsters had to say about the Silver and Black this week:

, NBA.com

3. San Antonio (last week No. 4): How ridiculous was the San Antonio offense last week? Over their three games, only one Spur didn’t make at least half his shots. That was Matt Bonner, who shot 5-for-18. Richard Jefferson’s resurgance (21-for-36 from 3-point range over the last nine games) has made up for Bonner’s slump.

Teams ahead (in order): Chicago, Miami

, Fox Sports.com

4. San Antonio (last week No. 7): The Spurs have the league’s best record, seem to be healthy and have created a bit of momentum for themselves. But when you start looking at the next couple of months and start asking about LeBron, Kobe, D-Rose, Durant and such, do you actually think the Spurs can survive? They can, but only if they get some bounces and get excellent play from Richard Jefferson and George Hill.

Teams ahead: Chicago, Oklahoma City,  Los Angeles

, ESPN.com

4. San Antonio (last week No. 6): Should the Spurs, holders of the league’s best record since mid-November, lay down Tuesday night in L.A. to make sure the Lakers don’t fall all the way to the No. 4 seed and right into their bracket? You tell me.

Teams ahead:  Chicago, L.A. Lakers, Miami

, ESPN.com

5. San Antonio (last week No.7): Also pegged at an 18.0 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and an 8.7 percent chance of winning the championship (behind Chicago at 27.8 percent, Miami at 14.8 percent, Denver at 11.4 percent and the Lakers at 11.2 percent.)

Teams ahead:  Chicago, Denver, Miami, L.A. Lakers.

, Hoops World.com

4. San Antonio (last week No. 5): The Spurs have gotten through their injury woes and at 61 wins, and are tied with Chicago for best-overall record.

Teams ahead: Chicago, Oklahoma City, Miami.

, CBS Sports.com

3. San Antonio (last week No. 5): Season’s biggest surprise: George Hill. If the Spurs win the title, he’ll be the reason. His 30 minutes a night have helped keep Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili fresh.

Teams ahead: Chicago, Miami.

, SI.com

No numeric rankings this week (last week No. 7) Grade for season: A (trailing only Chicago’s A+. Memphis and Oklahoma City also received A marks): Whatever concerns exist about their lack of frontcourt size and depth or the advanced age of their stars, the Spurs have earned the No. 1 seed in the West while winning at least 60 games for the first time since 2005-06. Gregg Popovich deserves Coach of the Year votes for tinkering with the offense to emphasize the transition skills of a healthy Manu Ginobili (who has set a career high for minutes) and perpetually underrated Tony Parker (the NBA’s best finisher at point guard over the last five seasons), along with spreading the floor for spot-up three-pointers by Ginobili, Matt Bonner, Richard Jefferson and Gary Neal before defenses could get set. The result is the NBA’s second-most-efficient offense (behind Denver’s). Like Boston, San Antonio knows its championship window is closing and that it will need more minutes and vintage defensive excellence from Tim Duncan in the weeks ahead. But give this team its due for an outstanding regular season.

Teams ahead: Chicago.

, Pro Basketball Talk

4. San Antonio (last week No. 7): The Spurs offense is back in its groove, but Tuesday night in Los Angeles look for Gregg Popovich to sit his stars. He does not want the Lakers falling to the four seed, which could still happen.

Teams ahead: Chicago, Miami, Oklahoma City.

, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

2. San Antonio (last week No. 2): Can veterans last in playoffs?

Teams ahead: Chicago.