NBA playoff preview: A closer look at first round

Express-News NBA beat writer Mike Monroe breaks down the Western and Eastern Conference first-round matchups. E-N Spurs beat writer Jeff McDonald will have a position-by-position analysis of the Spurs-Jazz series in Sunday’s editions:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Spurs (50-16) vs. (8) Jazz (36-30)

Season series: Spurs won 3-1.

Key matchup: Tim Duncan vs. Al Jefferson — Duncan has been one of the five best big men in the league since the All-Star break (17.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG) but Jefferson always has been a tough cover for him because of his strength down low and a reliable mid-range jumper.

Spurs can win if: They force the pace to their uptempo liking and limit Devin Harris’ 3-point shots. Tony Parker must continue being the pick-and-roll master.

Jazz can win if: The scores are in the high 80s and low 90s. They can’t keep pace with the Spurs, but they’ll have a chance in a slow, physical slog.

Prediction: Spurs in 7

(2) Thunder (47-19) vs. (7) Mavericks (36-30)

Season series: Thunder won 3-1.

Key matchup: Serge Ibaka vs. Dirk Nowitzki — Ibaka led the league in blocked shots and will get lots of votes for Defensive Player of the Year. The Mavs can’t win unless Nowitzki takes Ibaka away from the rim and exceeds his season average of 21.6 PPG.

Thunder can win if: Russell Westbrook doesn’t get so frustrated with Jason Kidd’s defense he forgets his primary role is to get the ball to Kevin Durant. Ibaka must prevent Nowitzki from dominating more than two games.

Mavericks can win if: Shawn Marion knocks three or four points off Durant’s league-leading scoring average (28.0 PPG) and Jason Terry remains a factor on offense.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

(3) Lakers (41-25) vs. (6) Nuggets (38-28)

Season series: Lakers won 3-1.

Key matchup: Andrew Bynum vs. JaVale McGee — The Lakers are at their best when Bynum is dominating inside and occupying defenders who might otherwise be focused on Pau Gasol. McGee has the size and athleticism to keep this from happening, but will he?

Lakers can win if: Kobe Bryant does work and Matt Barnes’ ankle heals. Bryant averaged only 17.7 points in four regular season games against the Nuggets. He must score more. They need Barnes as a reliable replacement for Metta World Peace.

Nuggets can win if: Ty Lawson dominates Ramon Sessions and Al Harrington’s torn meniscus (right knee) doesn’t keep him from being the factor he can be at both ends of the court.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

(4) Grizzlies (41-25) vs. (5) Clippers (40-26)

Season series: Clippers won 2-1.

Key matchup: Mike Conley vs. Chris Paul — It’s Paul who makes the Clippers dangerous and Blake Griffin the league leader in dunks. Conley did a terrific job limiting Tony Parker in the 1-8 matchup last spring. He’ll need to duplicate that.

Grizzlies can win if: Zach Randolph can do to Griffin what he did to Tim Duncan a year ago. If he dominates the matchup, the Grizzlies will be in the second round a second straight year.

Clippers can win if: Paul continues to be the crunch-time king. Plenty of these games figure to be decided in the final minute. Nobody in this series is better in the clutch than Paul.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Bulls (50-16) vs. (8) 76ers (35-31)

Season series: Bulls won 2-1.

Key matchup: Derrick Rose vs. Jrue Holiday — Nobody but Rose and the Bulls doctors know how close the reigning MVP is to 100 percent. Everybody knows how important he is, even in this series. Holiday is a gifted perimeter defender. He’ll have to keep Rose from being a game closer if the Sixers are to have a chance at an upset.

Bulls can win if: They slow down the Sixers’ transition offense and dominate up front. They’re still the best defensive outfit in the East, so count on them to slow down Holiday, Lou Williams and Andre Iguodala.

76ers can win if: Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes can defensive rebound and get the fast break rolling with long outlet passes. Hawes has to put a body on Joakim Noah every time a Bulls shot goes up.

Prediction: Bulls in 5

(2) Heat (46-20) vs. (7) Knicks (36-30)

Season series: Heat won 3-0.

Key matchup: LeBron James vs. Carmelo Anthony — The Knicks run lots of isolation plays for Anthony. James is a great defender and will work hard to limit his pal ’Melo. If that diverts James’ focus from dominating the open court, that’s Anthony’s best defensive weapon against him.

Heat can win if: They need Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh available to take the scoring load off James. With Tyson Chandler likely to focus defensively on Bosh, Udonis Haslem must look to be more of a scorer.

Knicks can win if: Who would have believed Steve Novak might be the key to an upset? If his 3-point shooting changes Miami’s defensive focus enough, they can extend this series.

Prediction: Heat in 5

(3) Pacers (42-24) vs. (6) Magic (37-29)

Season series: Magic won 3-1.

Key matchup: George Hill vs. Jameer Nelson — Hill, the former Spurs guard, took over as starter when Darren Collison was injured in late March. Collison’s back, but Hill is a lock-down defender who can keep Nelson from initiating the Magic’s offense.

Pacers can win if: Roy Hibbert dominates the boards as he should in a series without Dwight Howard. He’ll need to score plenty, too, and that shouldn’t be a problem, either.

Magic can win if: Big Baby Davis grows about half a foot overnight. That won’t happen and he’ll be playing on a sore right ankle, too.

Prediction: Pacers in 4

(4) Celtics (39-27) vs. (5) Hawks (40-26)

Season series: Celtics won 2-1.

Key matchup: Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith — Garnett has been a productive center since Jermaine O’Neal went down with an injury. Smith is a power forward, but he will need to match up against KG with Al Horford out and Zaza Pachulia ailing. Smith needs to wear out KG when the Hawks have the ball.

Celtics can win if: They steal home court in Game 1 or 2 because Doc Rivers got enough rest for his stars and Rajon Rondo neutralizes Jeff Teague at the point.

Hawks can win if: Smith prevents Garnett from dominating the defensive glass and scores enough to force the Celtics to double-team, opening lanes for Joe Johnson.

Prediction: Hawks in 7

mikemonroe@express-news.net

Twitter: @Monroe_SA

Game rewind: It wasn’t pretty, but the Spurs won’t complain

For much of Wednesday’s game, it appeared that neither Orlando nor San Antonio had much impetus to win their game.

A litany of missed shots, turnovers and all-around sloppy play didn’t make for a very spectator-friendly contest.

But after escaping with a wild 85-83 overtime victory, the Spurs probably don’t care.

Their first road victory of the season showed the kind of clutch late play which has been the hallmark of the franchise during its dynasty — even if hadn’t been seen at all in an embarrassing loss at Miami the previous night.

It gave them their first road victory of the season as they beat one of the Eastern Conference’s better teams. It also ended Orlando’s five-game winning streak and denied them a chance of a sweep in their back-to-back-to-back.

Even with the grinding offensive play, it produced  one of the most exciting victories for the Spurs this season.

Here are a few of the game highlights.

Game analysis: The Spurs finally found road success thanks to a clutch late performance by Tony Parker and some sticky overtime defense that persevered over a tired Orlando team playing for its third consecutive night.

Where the game was won: Gary Neal hit his first shot of the night with 28.2 left in overtime to give the Spurs an 84-81 lead. After Von Wafer hit a basket and missed a foul shot, Richard Jefferson hit one of two shots to give the Spurs an 85-83 lead.  On the ensuing play, Orlando had several chances for a game-winning shot. But a desperate leaping effort by Danny Green forced J.J. Redick to release his game-winning 3-pointer an instant after the buzzer ended.

A little earlier … Parker hit seven consecutive shots early in the fourth quarter before he was cooled off by a strong defensive effort by Larry Hughes. But late turnovers by Tim Duncan and Parker set up four late points from Redick that tied the score at 73. Duncan’s hoop was matched by two free throws by Redick with 17.7 seconds left to tie the score at 75. But overtime ensued after Parker misfired on a jumper in the final second of regulation.

 Player of the game I:  Parker carried the Spurs down the stretch, scoring 16 of his game-high 25 points in overtime. Parker also chipped in with seven rebounds and nine assists in 44 minutes — his second-longest playing effort this season. 

Player of the game II:  Orlando center Dwight Howard was a menane to the Spurs throughout the game, producing 24 points and 25 rebounds and three blocked shots. He also was plus-8, Orlando’s best plus-minus player in the game. 

Player of the game III: Neal struggled with his shooting throughout the game, missing his first five shots. His only basket ended up being the game-winning shot in a clutch role he has filled for the team throughout his two years  with them.

Most unsung: Green missed all six shots and scored only two points, but came up with the play of the game when his desperate leap at Redick made him pause just enough to keep him from shooting before the buzzer.

Did you notice: Orlando forward Glen “Big Baby” Davis earned a technical foul in the third quarter for an unusual display of disgust after a personal foul. Davis was whistled for a personal foul on a Spurs alley-oop attempt and then was whistled for a techical when he pulled  down his shorts to reveal black Spandex. Parker hit the ensuing technical foul shot to give  the Spurs a 53-50 lead.

Did you notice II: Parker easily dominated his matchup with Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson, who clanked through a 2-for-16 shooting effort for four points. By the end of the game, Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy was forced  to insert journeyman Hughes to counter Parker. He did better than Nelson, but not by much.

Stat of the game: A night after allowing Miami to blister them for 68.3 percent shooting and 71 points in the second half alone, the Spurs limited Orlando to 33.3 percent shooting and 82 points in 53 minutes. 

Stat of the game II: Orlando outrebounded the Spurs, 60-41. The 19-rebound margin is the largest by a Spurs opponent this season.    

Stat of the game III: The Spurs hit only two 3-pointers and were 11.8 percent from 3-point territory. Both totals matched the team’s previous low this season in the loss at Houston.  

Weird stat of the game: The victory continued a strong recent overtime streak for the Spurs, who have won three straight overtime games since losing at Houston last April 1. The Spurs have won six of their last seven overtime games and 14 of their last 19 overtime games in the regular season and playoffs.

Weird state of the game II: Including regular season and playoff games, Wednesday’s game was Howard’s 41st game with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds. Orlando’s record in those games is 31-10.

Quote of the game: “Our defense was great and then Parker got going, and that pretty much was the difference in the game,” Redick, to NBA.com on Parker’s late surge.

How the schedule stacks up: The Spurs are off on Thursday before three games in four days with a home game against Sacramento on Friday, and road game Saturday at Houston and Monday at New Orleans. The Magic will host the Lakers on Friday before back to back games Monday at Boston and Tuesday at Indiana.  

Injuries: Manu Ginobili missed his 10th game after undergoing surgery for a fractured fifth left metacarpal.  T.J. Ford missed his fifth game with a torn left hamstring sustained last week in Milwaukee. Orlando played without starting forward Hedo Turkoglu (back spasms) and Jason Richardson (bruised left knee).

Thunder, Magic set lockout mini-camps to boost team development

Orlando and Oklahoma City are the first two NBA teams to opt for unified team workouts during the lockout as a way of building team growth for the future.

It’s a good sign that both playoff-caliber teams are joining for voluntary workouts. And considering the reputation of both franchises, it’s not really that much of a surprise.

The Thunder are doing their camp this week. Hoops World.com reports that key players like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Maynor, Cole Aldrich, Nick Collison and top draft pick Reggie Johnson .   

Garnett has been playing in seemingly every major playground game involving NBA players this summer. But the unity of the Thunder team with him is noteworthy.

The Orlando Sentinel reports that the Magic are getting together beginning next week. Jameer Nelson, Quentin Richardson and Dwight Howard.

“I just want guys to get together a few days a week just to get back in the flow of things as much as we can and get some weightlifting in and some conditioning and get some shots up,” Nelson told the Sentinel.

Nelson added that he wants the workouts to be as close to possible to what the Magic would be experiencing at training camp.

“This is the time we all come back into town and just get together and get around each other and hang out a little bit, whether it’s dinner or going to watch a couple of football games, and work out during the day,” Nelson said.

“It doesn’t have to be an everyday thing because we have a veteran team. Guys still do their own thing working on their bodies individually, and to my understanding, most guys are [working on their own] right now.”

It wouldn’t be surprising to see some of the Spurs plan some similar work once the FIBA tournaments conclude and all of the players are through with their international commitments are concluded.