Category: In the News

Prediction – as Ginobili becomes what he once was

Column by Buck Harvey

The Spurs will lose one of the first two games.

The streak will be over. And the playoffs will begin.

The Spurs will then face their fears, that their run has made them less prepared for a counter, and that the young Thunder talent will get additional lift. Then, they will need to win the kind of road game in Oklahoma City that they’ve won in all of their championships years.

What happens then, with Manu Ginobili, will decide that.

Both sides privately see reasons to be afraid of this scenario, and it’s telling of a Western Conference finals that should be compelling. The Spurs have not been this solid and facing an opponent as equally solid since the second round of the 2007 playoffs.

Just as that Suns series was memorable, this one should be as well.

That’s also the last time Ginobili was healthy through the playoffs. In every year since, from a busted elbow to a busted nose, his injuries have been the Spurs’ way of saying it just isn’t our year.

“We’re not going anywhere without Manu at 100 percent,” Tony Parker said as recently as this February, and something like it has been said every season since the last championship.

Now Ginobili is 100 percent, but his 3-point percentage in the postseason is closer to 25. He’s been helpful in the playoffs at times, but not the force he once was.

Combine the Big Three of both the Spurs and Thunder and rank them this postseason. Isn’t Ginobili clearly sixth?

Yet that also shows the power and depth of the Spurs. Just as Ginobili didn’t play a minute against the Thunder this season, yet the Spurs still won the season series and the No. 1 seed, the Spurs found another way to win.

The Spurs didn’t go just anywhere. In sweeping the first two rounds, they went to a place they’ve never been. Both Vegas and the national media embrace the Spurs as favorites.

All of which makes the Spurs’ staff uncomfortable. They think people have gotten caught up with the 18-game winning streak, and they can’t believe the perception that they could sweep the Thunder.

They also wonder if they are built as traditional champions are. Maybe, at best, the Spurs are the Pistons of 2004, a snug fit of pieces, when usually the best teams are the ones with the best players.

Their argument: The record books usually show someone such as Kevin Durant leading a team to a title, not someone such as Chauncey Billups.

“In my heart of hearts,” one Spurs assistant said, “we’re the underdogs.”

Maybe it’s nothing more than the Spurs’ appropriate fear amped up. Still, a Western Conference general manager with another team understands the Spurs’ concern. He predicts the Spurs will win, but he also thinks they’ve been too good for their own good.

“They’ve had no real hiccups,” he said. “But it’s unlikely they will go undefeated. So, at some point, it’s about how they respond to adversity.”

The Spurs won all of their titles because they responded. For Ginobili, this goes back a long way. In his rookie year, against the Nets, he helped overcome an earlier loss at home to break through on the road in Game 3 in the Finals.

The Thunder brass is familiar with all of this. Just as the Spurs find reasons to be afraid, so did an Oklahoma City staffer last week when he joked about Ginobili and his 3-point slump.

“You know he’s going to have a game,” he said, “when he hits about five in a row on us, right?”

Ginobili might not do that, exactly. But his gift has been to find another level, to get better when others get nervous. And he will have to do that again.

For the Spurs to win in 7.

bharvey@express-news.net
Twitter: @Buck_SA

SPURS VS. THUNDER
Western Conference finals (best-of-7)

Game 1: Sunday – Spurs vs. Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

Game 2: Tuesday – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 3: Thursday – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 4: Saturday – Spurs @ Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

*Game 5: Monday June 4 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 6: Wednesday June 6 – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 7: Friday June 8 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

– All times Central
*If necessary

San Antonio Spurs playoff history

NBA Playoff appearances: 32 NBA Overall playoff record: 177-140 (.558)

NBA Championships: 4 (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007)

Year by year playoff record

* prior to 1985, there were three playoff rounds
* from 1985-present, there are four playoff rounds
* from 1985-2002, the first round was best-of-five

2012 – 4-0 (1.000)
Def. Utah 4-0 – (W, W, W, W)
vs. Clippers – (Series begins Tuesday)

2011 – 2-4 (.333)
Lost to Memphis 4-2 (L, W, L, L, W, L)

2010 – 4-6 (.400)
Def. Dallas 4-2 – (L, W, W, W, L, W)
Lost to Phoenix 4-0 – (L, L, L, L)

2009 – 1-4 (.200)
Lost to Dallas 1-4 – (L, W, L, L, L)

2008 – 9-8 (.529)
Def. Phoenix 4-1 – (W, W, W, L, W)
Def. New Orleans 4-3 – (L, L, W, W, L, W, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers 4-1 – (L, L, W, L, L)

2007 – 16-4 (.800)
Def. Denver 4-1 – (L, W, W, W, W)
Def. Phoenix 4-2 – (W, L, W, L, W, W)
Def. Utah 4-1 – (W, W, L, W, W)
Def. Cleveland 4-0 – (W, W, W, W)

2006 – 7-6 (.538)
Def. Sacramento 4-2 – (W, W, L, L, W, W)
Lost to Dallas 4-3 – (W, L, L, L, W, W, L)

2005 – 16-7 (.696)
Def. Denver 4-1 – (L, W, W, W, W)
Def. Seattle 4-2 – (W, W, L, L, W, W)
Def. Phoenix 4-1 – (W, W, W, L, W)
Def. Detroit 4-3 – (W, W, L, L, W, L, W)

2004 – 6-4 (.857)
Def. Memphis, 4-0 – (W, W, W, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 4-2 – (W, W, L, L, L, L)

2003 – 16-8 (.667)
Def. Phoenix, 4-2 – (L, W, W, L, W, W)
Def. L.A. Lakers, 4-2 – (W, W, L, L, W, W)
Def. Dallas 4-2 – (L, W, W, W, L, W)
Def. New Jersey, 4-2 – (W, L, W, L, W, W)

2002 – 4-6 (.400)
Def. Seattle, 3-2 – (W, L, W, L, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 4-1 – (L, W, L, L, L)

2001 – 7-6 (.538)
Def. Minnesota, 3-1 – (W, W, L, W)
Def. Dallas, 4-1 – (W, W, W, L, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 4-0 – (L, L, L, L)

2000 – 1-3 (.250)
Lost to Phoenix, 3-1 – (L, W, L, L)

1999 – 15-2 (.882)
Def. Minnesota, 3-1 – (W, L, W, W)
Def. L.A. Lakers, 4-0 – (W, W, W, W)
Def. Portland, 4-0 – (W, W, W, W)
Def. New York, 4-1 – (W, W, L, W, W)

1998 – 4-5 (.444)
Def. Phoenix, 3-1 – (W, L, W, W)
Lost to Utah, 4-1 – (L, L, W, L, L)

1996 – 5-5 (.500)
Def. Phoenix, 3-1 – (W, W, L, W)
Lost to Utah, 4-2 – (L, W, L, L, W, L)

1995 – 9-6 (.600)
Def. Denver, 3-0 – (W, W, W)
Def. L.A. Lakers, 4-2 – (W, W, L, W, L, W)
Lost to Houston, 4-2 – (L, L, W, W, L, L)

1994 – 1-3 (.250)
Lost to Utah, 3-1 – (W, L, L, L)

1993 – 5-5 (.500)
Def. Portland, 3-1 – (W, L, W, W)
Lost to Phoenix, 4-2 – (L, L, W, W, L, L)

1992 – 0-3 (.000)
Lost to Phoenix, 3-0 – (L, L, L)

1991 – 1-3 (.250)
Lost to Golden St., 3-1 – (W, L, L, L)

1990 – 6-4 (.600)
Def. Denver, 3-0 – (W, W, W)
Lost to Portland, 4-3 – (L, L, W, W, L, W, L)

1988 – 0-3 (.000)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 3-0 – (L, L, L)

1986 – 0-3 (.000)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 3-0 – (L, L, L)

1985 – 2-3 (.400)
Lost to Denver, 3-2 – (L, W, L, W, L)

1983 – 6-5 (.545)
Def. Denver, 4-1 – (W, W, W, L, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 4-2 – (L, W, L, L, W, L)

1982 – 4-5 (.444)
Def. Seattle, 4-1 – (W, L, W, W, W)
Lost to L.A. Lakers, 4-0 – (L, L, L, L)

1981 – 3-4 (.429)
Lost to Houston, 4-3 – (L, W, L, W, L, W, L)

1980 – 1-2 (.333)
Lost to Houston, 2-1 – (L, W, L)

1979 – 7-7 (.500)
Def. Philadelphia, 4-3 – (W, W, L, W, L, L, W)
Lost to Washington, 4-3 – (W, L, W, W, L, L, L)

1978 – 2-4 (.333)
Lost to Wash., 4-2 – (W, L, L, L, W, L)

1977 – 0-2 (.000)
Lost to Boston, 2-0 – (L, L)

Behind the face: Leonard’s comeback

Column by Buck Harvey

LOS ANGELES — They didn’t like Kawhi Leonard Saturday. They were in awe of him.

A few members of the Spurs’ brass stood in a Staples Center hallway trying to find the proper superlative. And, fitting of Leonard, the best compliment was a non-verbal one.

A Spurs official put his hand in front of his face, then lowered it slowly, to show the universal sign for expressionless cool.

That was Leonard, the rookie, on the road, with the Spurs being crushed in the first half.

“He might have been,” the official said, “the steadiest on the floor.”

He might have been the best Spur, too, and that brings up something that should have been understood long ago by people who insist on comparing him to Bruce Bowen. Leonard isn’t Bowen.

Leonard has twice the talent. He can rebound, muscle, dribble and pass. Bowen struggled with all four.

And while Bowen needed time to find a place in the league at age 30, Leonard is there at 20.

Add to that what Bowen did so well, such as shoot the corner three and play defense, and the package is rare. It was all on display Saturday, when Leonard alternated between chasing Chris Paul and bumping with Blake Griffin.

“He’s the one guy nobody ever talks about,” Manu Ginobili said afterward. And maybe he’s also the reason many don’t understand where this 17-in-a-row success has come from. The Spurs have found a young, long, efficient athlete who fills a position that has been lacking since, well, Bowen left.

His composure might be his most impressive trait. Leonard grew up in the area, so he had family and friends here, and yet he reacted to the early rout by not reacting.

“I don’t think he ever gets excited,” Tim Duncan said Saturday. “He’s absolutely even keel the entire time. I think he’s even more mellow than me, if that’s possible.”

Duncan consciously works to keep a poker face. Leonard is a natural.

And it’s not that Leonard has an absence of expression; it’s what is there in place of one. Leonard has permanent sorrow, the look of a sad clown, and it rarely changes.

He was the same after the game Saturday, when the media surrounded him and asked how he thought he did against Griffin.

“I think I did pretty well,” he said, while his faced suggested he had failed miserably.

He never talks to refs, which is smart for a rookie, and he doesn’t say much to his teammates, either. But, according to Stephen Jackson, Leonard has a favorite expression.

“Grind hard.”

The Spurs needed exactly that Saturday. Leonard sat down late in the first quarter after the Clippers jumped out to a 23-9 lead. By the time he came back, the Spurs were losing by 21.

Gregg Popovich later repeated what he often says, that these early leads always scare coaches, because the games are “so doggone long.” But how doggone long would Popovich have stuck with his starters had the Clippers kept their lead?

With another game tonight, Popovich might have been one quarter away from conceding.

So what happened at the end of the first half mattered, and Leonard started it. He hit a runner. Then, after Tony Parker missed, Leonard kept the rebound alive. The basketball fell into Duncan’s arms, and he got the score.

Grind hard, all right.

By the end of the half, the sense was that the Spurs were in control. ?Leonard took that further to start the third quarter, with a three and later a steal that set up a Parker layup.

How the Spurs pulled even: A three-point play inside by Leonard.

“Kawhi sure does not look like a rookie,” Popovich said at a news conference.

And outside the room, standing in the hallway, a Spurs official put his hand in front of his face, then lowered it slowly.

bharvey@express-news.net
Twitter: @Buck_SA

SPURS VS. CLIPPERS
(Spurs lead best-of-seven series 2-0)

Game 1:

Game 2:

Game 3:

Game 4: Sunday, @Clippers, 9:30 p.m., TNT

* Game 5: Tuesday, @Spurs, TBA, TNT

* Game 6: Friday, @Clippers, TBA, ESPN

* Game 7: May 27, @Spurs, TBA, TNT

* If necessary