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Duncan in need of good vibes vs. L.A.

LOS ANGELES — When the Spurs take on the L.A. Lakers tonight at Staples Center, there are no guarantees Tim Duncan’s name will be in the starting lineup.

With the Spurs’ perch in the Western Conference playoffs locked up, Gregg Popovich could opt to sit his 34-year-old star power forward for one or both of the final two games.

If anyone in silver and black could use a positive outcome against the two-time defending champions, however, it is Duncan.

Repeatedly flummoxed by the Lakers’ twin 7-footers, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, Duncan has scored a total of just 12 points on 5-of-26 shooting in three games against the Lakers this season.

“They clog it up inside,” Duncan said. “They do a good job challenging shots. With their length, they can do that.”

Duncan’s struggles against the Lakers could come into play if the teams meet in the playoffs. So far, there has been no direct correlation between his statistical line and the Spurs’ fortunes against L.A.

Twice, Duncan has turned in identical two-point, 1-for-7 performances. The Spurs won the first game 97-82 on Dec. 28 and lost the second 99-83 on March 6.

For now, Duncan remains more focused on rounding into playoff shape after missing five games since late March, four of them with a sprained left ankle. In six games since his return, Duncan — who acknowledges the ankle is still not 100 percent — has averaged 15 points and 7.8 rebounds.

“I expect Timmy to play at his best once the playoffs come,” point guard Tony Parker said. “He’s always done it. I don’t see why it would be different.”

To rest, or not: Before leaving San Antonio, Popovich had not decided which of his regulars to play tonight against the Lakers. The entire roster will make the season-ending trip to Los Angeles and Phoenix, which leaves his options open.

“We haven’t thought about dealing with it any differently at this point,” Popovich said. “We’ll see as the games approach exactly what we might do.”

Several players have expressed an interest in fending off Chicago for the top overall record, which would probably require the Spurs to beat the Lakers and the Suns.

“We’ve played this well all season, we’d love to finish out atop the NBA,” Duncan said. “We’re going to try to do the best of managing minutes and winning games, and doing that all at the same time.”

Scoreboard watching: The Spurs locked up the West’s No. 1 seed last week, giving them plenty of time to handicap which team they might face in the first round.

The No. 8 seed remains up for grabs between Memphis and New Orleans.

The Spurs could still draw either team in the first round, as well as Portland, which currently is sixth.

Memphis’ game tonight at Portland should go a ways toward sorting out the seeding.

“If anybody can figure it out, let me know, because it’s kind of confusing,” Ginobili said. “We just worry about ourselves and just wait.”

Thanks to Utah, Spurs’ magic number down 2

Hours after the Spurs polished off a 97-90 win over Atlanta on Tuesday night, the Utah Jazz provided them more good news on the opposite coast.

Thanks to Utah’s 86-85 victory over the Lakers at Staples Center, the Spurs are now 3 1/2 games up on Los Angeles with four to play, their magic number to clinch the Western Conference’s top seed winnowed to two games. Without any further assistance from the Lakers, the Spurs could sew things up on their upcoming homestand that begins Wednesday against Sacramento and concludes Saturday against the same Jazz who just won in Los Angeles.

Neither opponent is in playoff contention, but as the Jazz proved Tuesday, sometimes teams with nothing to play for play like there’s nothing to lose.

Asked after beating Atlanta about the importance of securing the No. 1 seed, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich shrugged.

“Everybody talks about it every year,” he said. “We’ve had it and won and had it and lost. The team best usually ends up winning.”

Still, the Spurs certainly won’t turn down home-court advantage through the Western Conference bracket, or the the prospect of avoiding both the Lakers and Mavericks until at least the conference finals.

As recently as Sunday, as the Spurs’ lead in the conference dipped to just 1 1/2 games over the Lakers, it appeared certain Kobe Bryant and Co. would overtake them. A scheduled April 12 visit to the Staples Center loomed large.

Now, the Spurs have a chance to wrap up seeding by the end of the week, which would allow Popovich to rest any players who need it on the season-ending trip to Los Angeles and Phoenix.

Mike Monroe: Health is more vital than top seed

There’s panic in South Texas.

With key players battling injuries, the Spurs have lost four straight games.

First place in the Western Conference no longer seems certain.

Suddenly sizzling, the Lakers are in hot pursuit, a once-daunting gap narrowing.

Should the Spurs drop into second place in the West, a segment of their fans will blame Gregg Popovich for being too cautious with players nursing aches and pains when Monday’s game against the Trail Blazers arrived.

Second-guessers insist Tony Parker and Antonio McDyess would have guaranteed victory in that game. After all, a lineup that included deep reserves Danny Green, Chris Quinn and Steve Novak nearly pulled out a victory.

This is a fan’s logic and ignores reality.

Would George Hill have been as aggressive at the offensive end had Parker played Monday?

Would McDyess have defended LaMarcus Aldridge more effectively than Tiago Splitter?

Would the full lineup have defended more ferociously than the outfit Popovich had on the court in the third quarter, when Portland scored only nine points?

The more important question: Is one victory in late March worth risking further damage to aggravating injuries that need to heal by mid-April?

Ask Popovich about the importance of the No. 1 seed, and the response never varies: Nobody would turn down home-court advantage, but it’s not as important as being healthy.

History proves this. The Rockets were a No. 6 seed in 1995, when Hakeem Olajuwon missed 10 games and Clyde Drexler joined the team after a Valentine’s Day trade and had to work through some nagging injuries of his own before gaining traction with his new team.

No dyed-in-the-wool Spurs fan has forgotten how little home-court advantage meant in the conference finals, when the Rockets won three times at the Alamodome and eliminated the Spurs in six games.

A No. 1 seed nearly guarantees advancement past the first round, but not always. Since the league adopted a 16-team postseason format, beginning with the 1983-84 playoffs, No. 1 seeds are 51-3 in the first round.

No. 2 seeds have been nearly as successful in the first round. Only five No. 2 seeds have failed to advance.

It’s more important to examine the rate of success for No. 1 seeds in conference finals. The home-court advantage has been important, but hardly vital.

Since the 16-team format was adopted, 16 No. 1 seeds have emerged from 27 Western finals; 16 from 27 Eastern finals.

That’s hardly the sort of empirical evidence that would persuade a coach to throw caution to the wind in pursuit of a 59.3 percent edge.

In their four championship runs, the Spurs twice had the No. 1 seed in the West — in 1999 and 2003. Phoenix was the West’s No. 1 seed in 2005, Dallas in 2007.

A Spurs lead once seen as insurmountable at the top of the West seems precarious with eight games left, their magic number stuck on six.

The biggest problem with the magic number?

The Spurs can’t wave a wand and make the Lakers lose.

Los Angeles is 15-1 since the All-Star break. There is no good reason to believe the Lakers can’t close out the regular season with nine more victories.

To preserve the top seed, the Spurs will have to do the heavy lifting on their own, possibly needing to win six of their final eight.

Isn’t that how Popovich would prefer they get it?

mikemonroe@express-news.net