Unlocked: Now what for Spurs?

The NBA lockout is almost over. The “nuclear winter” commissioner David Stern promised turned out to be a mild snowstorm. What can the Spurs expect from a shortened training camp, condensed free-agent period and truncated 66-game regular season slated to start after Christmas? Express-News Spurs beat writer Jeff McDonald takes a guess:

Will the shortened season really help an old team like the Spurs?

In 1999, when the Spurs parlayed a lockout-shrunken, 50-game season into the first championship in franchise history, their starting lineup averaged 30.8 years.

This season’s projected starting lineup averages 31. For an older team, it seems logical that fewer regular-season games should result in fresher legs once the playoffs roll around.

Last season, the Spurs were 54-12 and peaking at the 66-game mark. Had the postseason started then, perhaps they would have lasted past the first round.

How many back-to-backs (and back-to-back-to-backs) can older stars such as Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili be expected to handle?

The downside for an old team facing a compressed schedule: a greater percentage of those dreaded back-to-backs, and the possibility of back-to-back-to-backs as schedule makers attempt to shoehorn 66 games into a four-month window.

In a normal season, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is vigilant about resting his older stars during the rigorous portions of the schedule. With Duncan 35 and Ginobili 34, expect that caution to approach paranoia this season.

When Ginobili had to play eight games in 11 nights in an Olympic qualifier in Argentina this past summer, he complained of exhaustion by the end of it. Chances are, he won’t be given a chance to repeat that experience for Popovich.

What kind of shape will most players be in once training camp commences?

Don’t expect many fat, out-of-shape guys among the Spurs’ key players.

Throughout the lockout, Duncan has been leading regular workouts for San Antonio-based players and is reported to be in fine fighting shape. Ginobili has kept himself in shape after playing for Argentina. Tony Parker played for France and is now playing professional ball in that country.

The Spurs’ veterans have been there and done that and know how to prepare their bodies for the nightly grind of the NBA. Younger players, given too much downtime away from the watchful eyes of the Spurs’ new strength and conditioning staff, might not fare so well. It will be interesting to see who is gassed and who is not come the first day of camp.

Will Richard Jefferson still be here opening night?

The new collective bargaining agreement is expected to contain an amnesty provision that would allow teams to waive one player without incurring the accompanying salary-cap hit.

Richard Jefferson, the 31-year-old small forward who has mostly underwhelmed in two seasons in San Antonio, appears to be a prime candidate for the axe. But not so fast.

Jettisoning Jefferson and his $9.2 million salary wouldn’t put the Spurs below the cap, limiting their ability to replace him via free agency. It is possible, perhaps even likely, the Spurs hold on to Jefferson for the time being, using him as a de facto expiring contract at the trade deadline.

Or, they could wait and waive him until next summer, when the Spurs also have Duncan’s $21.3 million coming off the books, to create enough cap room to attract a higher class of free agents in 2012.

How active should we expect the Spurs to be in the December free agent frenzy?

Not very. Even if the Spurs do use amnesty provision on Jefferson and lose Antonio McDyess and his $5.2 million contract to retirement, they still won’t fall far enough below the cap line to make much of a splash in free agency.

For the Spurs, the free-agent period expected to start Dec. 9 — the same day teams can open camp — will probably look much like the one that usually starts July 1. The team will use its mid-level exception and minimum contracts to fill out the roster with role players (Shane Battier, anyone?) and hope the core of a team that won 61 games last season will be enough to keep it competitive this season.

Spurs’ Blair mulls deal with Russia

By Jeff McDonald
jmcdonald@express-news.net

DeJuan Blair could become the next and most prominent Spurs player to take his talents overseas during the NBA lockout.

Blair, who started 65 games at center for the Spurs last season, has an offer on the table from the Russian team Krasnye Krylya, his agent, Happy Walters, said Wednesday. All it is awaiting is Blair’s signature.

“If he signs it, then he’ll go,” Walters said. “The ball’s in our court.”

Should Blair opt to head to Russia, he would have some company abroad.

So far, 32 players who ended the 2010-11 season on an NBA roster have signed deals overseas. Among them are Spurs swingman Danny Green (Slovenia) and third-string point guard Chris Quinn (Russia).

According to the French publication Le Progres, All-Star point guard Tony Parker will join ASVEL, the French League team he co-owns, by mid-October if the lockout is still in progress.

Like all players with existing NBA contracts who aim to spend the lockout abroad, Blair’s deal in Russia would contain an out clause allowing him to return to the Spurs once the labor impasse is resolved.

Blair, 22, is under contract with the Spurs for the next two seasons at a total of $2.04 million, though only $500,000 of that figure is guaranteed. Blair would obtain insurance protecting his NBA contract against injury should he decide to play overseas, his agent said.

Walters said he expects Blair’s decision to come before the end of the week. If he accepts, Blair would leave for Samara — the sixth-largest city in Russia and Krasnye Krylya’s home base — next week.

With the lockout lumbering into its third month, any bit of on-court work would be welcome for Blair. Admitting a weakness for Whataburger, the 6-foot-7 Blair struggled with his weight last season, his second in the NBA, approaching 300 pounds at one point.

Blair averaged a career-best 8.3 points and seven rebounds but late in the season relinquished his starting job to Antonio McDyess, as coach Gregg Popovich chose to favor experience heading into the playoffs.

With the NBA locked out, and few other good options to play professional-level games, Walters views Russia as a good career-building move for Blair.

“He’s a young guy who wants to play,” Walters said. “It’s a way for him to stay in great shape, and at the same time get better. You’re not going to play 30 minutes a night and not get better.”

Evaluating Splitter: An anniversary still in the making

A year ago today, the Spurs made up major ground in their quest to match the height and length of the Los Angeles Lakers. They added a player who could, conceivably, help tilt the balance of power back their direction in the West.

Conventional wisdom can sometimes seem foolish in hindsight.

On July 12, 2011, after three years of waiting on their erstwhile No. 1 draft pick to finish out commitments in Spain, the Spurs signed big man Tiago Splitter — the nearly 7-foot Brazilian who, if press clippings at the time were to believed, could leap the Christ the Redeemer statue in a single bound.

One rival NBA executive at the time gushed Splitter was “the perfect player” for the Spurs. He had been the best big in Europe the season before, having led his Spanish League team to a championship and earning MVP honors en route.

He was the perfect complement for Tim Duncan, not quite reaching the Twin Towers apex the latter had enjoyed with David Robinson, but a decent enough facsimile to get people excited.

Splitter was the Spurs’ present and future all rolled into one. Some people, , compared Splitter’s arrival in San Antonio with LeBron James’ more heralded landing in Miami a few days earlier.

So what happened?

Splitter appeared in just 60 games, averaging 4.6 points and 3.4 rebounds. Contrary to preseason predictions, he wasn’t one of the best rookies in the NBA. He wasn’t even the best rookie on his own team, an honor seized by undrafted guard Gary Neal.

Was Splitter’s rookie season a bust? It depends upon how one defines the word. Certainly, he didn’t live up to lofty expectations which, despite Gregg Popovich’s attempts to tamp them down, had three years to bubble to too-lofty heights.

Injuries were clearly an impediment to Splitter catching on. Worn down from several seasons of year-round basketball, Splitter strained a muscle in his  foot the second day of his first NBA training camp. He’d miss the entire preseason and eventually the first two games of the regular season as well.

In a way, Splitter never did catch up. Popovich limited the big man to spot duty for much of the season. At key moments when Splitter seemed poised to gain a greater foothold in the rotation, injuries would set him back again. Throw in the fact that the Spurs were en route to 61 victories with DeJuan Blair and then Antonio McDyess playing next to Duncan, and Popovich seemed hesitant to mess with a good thing.

It is among the more surprising aspects of the Spurs’ season that they were able to notch the best record in the Western Conference — better than the two-time champion Lakers or eventual champion Dallas Mavericks — while the player purported to be the biggest addition of their offseason barely registered a ripple.

Not all of this is Splitter’s fault.

When Splitter did play, he generally proved to be as advertised — or at least how Popovich tried to advertise him, before expectations spun out of control. He was a blue-collar guy, a hard-hat and lunch-pail and punch the time clock guy. Not a star. He was never supposed to be.

By the time the playoffs dawned, Splitter found himself where many Spurs rookies do — superglued to the end of the bench, watching, even as the bigger, stronger Memphis Grizzlies pushed around his team’s front line. When he finally made his playoff debut, in Game 4 with the Spurs in a 2-1 hole, Splitter logged 10 points and nine rebounds in 21 minutes.

What does the future hold for Splitter? The Spurs still harbor high hopes. Popovich laid more expectations at Splitter’s feet than he ever had before, calling the Brazilian big man the Spurs’ “linchpin of the future” and a “stalwart going forward.”

As his No. 1 offseason personnel goal, Popovich cited the need to find a better defensive complement for Duncan in the front court, a role that could go to Splitter. He will still be a hard-hat and lunch-pail guy, but perhaps allowed to punch his time card a little more regularly in season two.

Most new additions to the Spurs’ program famously fare better in their second year than their first, though the ongoing lockout and potential for a truncated training camp might mitigate that effect this time around.

Whatever happens, decision-makers in the Spurs’ organizations seem to believe Splitter can live up to the promise of last summer. Even if that promise arrives year behind schedule.