Prediction – as Ginobili becomes what he once was

Column by Buck Harvey

The Spurs will lose one of the first two games.

The streak will be over. And the playoffs will begin.

The Spurs will then face their fears, that their run has made them less prepared for a counter, and that the young Thunder talent will get additional lift. Then, they will need to win the kind of road game in Oklahoma City that they’ve won in all of their championships years.

What happens then, with Manu Ginobili, will decide that.

Both sides privately see reasons to be afraid of this scenario, and it’s telling of a Western Conference finals that should be compelling. The Spurs have not been this solid and facing an opponent as equally solid since the second round of the 2007 playoffs.

Just as that Suns series was memorable, this one should be as well.

That’s also the last time Ginobili was healthy through the playoffs. In every year since, from a busted elbow to a busted nose, his injuries have been the Spurs’ way of saying it just isn’t our year.

“We’re not going anywhere without Manu at 100 percent,” Tony Parker said as recently as this February, and something like it has been said every season since the last championship.

Now Ginobili is 100 percent, but his 3-point percentage in the postseason is closer to 25. He’s been helpful in the playoffs at times, but not the force he once was.

Combine the Big Three of both the Spurs and Thunder and rank them this postseason. Isn’t Ginobili clearly sixth?

Yet that also shows the power and depth of the Spurs. Just as Ginobili didn’t play a minute against the Thunder this season, yet the Spurs still won the season series and the No. 1 seed, the Spurs found another way to win.

The Spurs didn’t go just anywhere. In sweeping the first two rounds, they went to a place they’ve never been. Both Vegas and the national media embrace the Spurs as favorites.

All of which makes the Spurs’ staff uncomfortable. They think people have gotten caught up with the 18-game winning streak, and they can’t believe the perception that they could sweep the Thunder.

They also wonder if they are built as traditional champions are. Maybe, at best, the Spurs are the Pistons of 2004, a snug fit of pieces, when usually the best teams are the ones with the best players.

Their argument: The record books usually show someone such as Kevin Durant leading a team to a title, not someone such as Chauncey Billups.

“In my heart of hearts,” one Spurs assistant said, “we’re the underdogs.”

Maybe it’s nothing more than the Spurs’ appropriate fear amped up. Still, a Western Conference general manager with another team understands the Spurs’ concern. He predicts the Spurs will win, but he also thinks they’ve been too good for their own good.

“They’ve had no real hiccups,” he said. “But it’s unlikely they will go undefeated. So, at some point, it’s about how they respond to adversity.”

The Spurs won all of their titles because they responded. For Ginobili, this goes back a long way. In his rookie year, against the Nets, he helped overcome an earlier loss at home to break through on the road in Game 3 in the Finals.

The Thunder brass is familiar with all of this. Just as the Spurs find reasons to be afraid, so did an Oklahoma City staffer last week when he joked about Ginobili and his 3-point slump.

“You know he’s going to have a game,” he said, “when he hits about five in a row on us, right?”

Ginobili might not do that, exactly. But his gift has been to find another level, to get better when others get nervous. And he will have to do that again.

For the Spurs to win in 7.

bharvey@express-news.net
Twitter: @Buck_SA

SPURS VS. THUNDER
Western Conference finals (best-of-7)

Game 1: Sunday – Spurs vs. Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

Game 2: Tuesday – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 3: Thursday – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 4: Saturday – Spurs @ Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

*Game 5: Monday June 4 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 6: Wednesday June 6 – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 7: Friday June 8 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

– All times Central
*If necessary

Spurs-Thunder: A clash of old and new

By Jeff McDonald

After sweeping through the Utah Jazz in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the top-seeded Spurs had to wait eight days to start the second round.

Once there, it took them all of six days to sweep the Los Angeles Clippers, too.

A second straight whitewashing earned the Spurs another extended break — six days before the start of the next round — with one seminal difference: This time, at least, they know what they are up against.

The Spurs’ first trip to the Western Conference finals in four years will open Sunday against fast-rising, second-seeded Oklahoma City at the ATT Center.

“At this point in the season, you want to know what you’re going to face,” guard Manu Ginobili said. “The uncertainty is not always good.”

When it comes to playing Oklahoma City, certainty can also be unsettling.

Propelled by the most prolific scoring trio in the NBA, the Thunder are sure to provide stiffer resistance than the two teams the Spurs just finished shredding like so much used Christmas paper.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich gave his team the day off Tuesday, a day after Oklahoma City eliminated the L.A. Lakers to punch a ticket to San Antonio.

Popovich and his staff convened to break down film and begin to formulate a game plan for the Thunder, who feature a pair of All-Stars in NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant and volatile point guard Russell Westbrook, as well as the Sixth Man of the Year in James Harden.

“They’re great now,” Popovich said, “And the future’s even brighter.”

In a sense, this series sets up as a battle between the league’s old guard against its next wave.

The Spurs are a grizzled four-time champion eager for one more shot at the crown during the Tim Duncan era. The Thunder are a young and hungry challenger impatient to assume the throne now.

In order for the up-and-coming Thunder to take the next step, they must first overcome a savvy, veteran team that has successfully navigated this road before.

“They’ve been together for a while,” Westbrook said. “They’ve got a lot of tricks to their game. We have to step it up mentally.”

As much as the Spurs believe they have their hands full with Oklahoma City, the Thunder are equally wary of the surging Spurs, who are riding a franchise-best 18-game winning streak.

“It feels like they haven’t lost in a while,” Westbrook said.

If there is a secret to handling OKC, the Spurs seem to hold the key. Over the past three seasons, since the Thunder became playoff regulars in 2009-10, the Spurs have gone 8-2 against them.

That includes a 107-96 affair in Oklahoma City’s last trip to the ATT Center on Feb. 4, when Tony Parker erupted for a season-high 42 points at Westbrook’s expense.

“It looks like they don’t ever make mistakes,” Durant said.

After dispatching the NBA’s last two champions (Dallas and the Lakers) in the first two rounds — and needing just nine games to do it — the Thunder can’t help but feel like their time has arrived.

At a combined 68.4 points per game in the regular season, Oklahoma City’s star trio — and not the more ballyhooed triumvirate down in South Beach — ranked as the highest-scoring Big Three in the NBA.

Durant’s 28 points per game narrowly edged Kobe Bryant for the NBA lead, joining him with Michael Jordan as the only players since 1981 to win three consecutive scoring crowns.

“He’s one of the elites, and he will be his whole career,” Popovich said.

With Durant, the 23-year-old former collegiate player of the year at Texas, locked up until 2016 and the 23-year-old Westbrook under contract until 2017, an NBA Finals appearance seems only a matter of time for the Thunder.

The Spurs’ goal, starting Sunday: Delay Oklahoma City’s much-anticipated coronation for at least another year.

jmcdonald@express-news.net
Twitter: @JMcDonald_SAEN

SPURS VS. THUNDER
Western Conference finals (best-of-7)

Game 1: Sunday May 27 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

Game 2: Tuesday May 29 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 3: Thursday May 31 – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

Game 4: Saturday June 2 – Spurs @ Thunder, 7:30 p.m. TNT

*Game 5: Monday June 4 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 6: Wednesday June 6 – Spurs @ Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

*Game 7: Friday June 8 – Spurs vs. Thunder, 8:00 p.m. TNT

– All times Central
*If necessary

Another monster game from Love heads Monday’s S&Ds

Kevin Love made a bold statement after his monster game Monday night.

“This is my time right now,” Love told the Associated Press after his flip shot with 43 seconds left ended up providing the margin in Minnesota’s 95-94 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

The shot punctuated Love’s huge game, which included 39 points, 17 rebounds and five 3-pointers.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Love is the first player in NBA history to record consecutive games of at least 35 points and 10 rebounds, making at least five 3-pointers in each game. He is averaging 40.5 points in those two games.

“You have to have confidence that you are going to get what you want,” Minnesota coach Rick Adelman told the AP. “But the great thing about him is he gets what he wants and he’s such a good free throw shooter that it all adds up.”

It helped him lead Monday’s Studs and Duds of  the NBA’s top statistical performers last night. 

STUDS

Minnesota F Kevin Love: Notched 39 points, 17 rebounds, two assists and was plus-8 in the Timberwolves’ victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

Orlando C Dwight Howard: Produced 36 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks and was plus-6 in the Magic’s victory at Toronto.

Milwaukee G Brandon Jennings: Notched 33 points, seven assists, four rebounds, two steals and was plus-5 in the Bucks’ victory over Philadelphia.

Utah F Al Jefferson: Went for 25 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and was tied for team honors with plus-16 in the Jazz’s victory at Cleveland.

Denver G Ty Lawson: Had his second big game in two nights with 16 points, seven rebounds, 13 assists and two steals in the Nuggets’ overtime triumph over Sacramento.

DUDS

Los Angeles Clippers F Caron Butler: Missed all six field goal attempts with a turnover and was minus-1 in the Clippers’ loss at Minnesota.

Minnesota G J.J. Barea: Missed all seven field goal attempts with two turnovers and was minus-3 in the Timberwolves’ victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

Oklahoma City F Kevin Durant: Scored 22 points, but went 6 of 18 from the field with seven turnovers in the Thunder’s victory over Dallas.

New Orleans C Chris Kaman: Went 4 of 13 from the field with four turnovers and was minus-10 in the Hornets’ loss at Portland.

Washington G Jordan Crawford: Clanked through a 2-for-13 shooting night with three turnovers and was minus-3 in the Wizards’ loss to  Golden State.