With Ginobili whole, Spurs like their chances

By Jeff McDonald

Manu Ginobili flung up a final few jumpers at the end of practice Saturday, then wandered over to do time with the gathered media.

What the Spurs guard said mattered far less than how he looked and felt.

Unlike the eve of last year’s postseason, there was no constricting blue brace strapped to Ginobili’s right arm. His elbow is fine. Hand, too. The ankles, knees, nose and abdomen? All shipshape, thanks for asking.

Incredibly for this time of year in South Texas, Ginobili doesn’t even report any allergies.

“No complaints,” he said.

For the Spurs, hoping to parlay this year’s No. 1 seed in the Western Conference into a deeper run than last year, that is certainly good news.

The Spurs open Game 1 of their first-round series against eighth-seeded Utah this afternoon at the ATT Center, their 34-year-old Argentine playmaker intact.

It is a stark change from, well, the past four postseasons.

Ginobili hasn’t been completely healthy and available for an entire playoff run since 2007. Not coincidentally, that is the last time the Spurs won an NBA title.

With point guard Tony Parker playing the best basketball of his life, Tim Duncan looking years away from retirement and Ginobili whole, the Spurs enter this year’s tournament liking their chances of taking home Larry O’Brien Trophy No. 5.

“We’re confident. We’re playing well,” said Duncan, the Spurs’ 36-year-old captain. “Above all, we are healthy.”

It’s a big “above all.”

The Spurs were confident last year, too, before disaster hit on the last day of the regular season in Phoenix.

Ginobili was squeezing between the Suns’ Grant Hill and a Duncan screen when his right elbow became trapped, hyperextending ligaments and fracturing bone.

He missed Game 1 against Memphis, which the Spurs lost en route to becoming the second No. 1 seed in the best-of-7 era to tumble in the first round.

“An injury messes up everything,” said Ginobili, who averaged 13.2 points and 4.8 assists off the bench after the All-Star break. “When you are hurt, you think more about your injury than your opponent and what you’ve got to do.”

Ever since the 2007 championship, the Spurs have been able to faithfully write “catastrophic Ginobili injury” on their April calendar, just before the words “plan early vacation.”

This year, perhaps Ginobili got it out of the way early, missing 22 games with a broken left hand from January to early February.

Some of the playoff injuries Ginobili could play through (ankle ligament impingement, 2008; fractured nose, 2010; fractured elbow, 2011). Some he could not (stress fracture, right leg, 2009).

Given the hardscrabble manner in which the Jazz play, there’s no guarantee Ginobili makes it out of this year’s first round unscathed.

Utah doesn’t rank among the NBA leaders in fouls for nothing.

“Every time we play Utah, it’s a lot of hits and a lot of hacking,” Parker said.

Ginobili’s injured elbow was not the sole reason the Spurs lost to Memphis last season — Zach Randolph and the rest of the Grizzlies had something to do with it, too — but it didn’t help.

If nothing else, the pratfall of last April served to remind the Spurs of how much has to go right to win a championship, and how little time this particular incarnation has left to add another one.

“We don’t talk about it, but they’re intelligent people,” coach Gregg Popovich said. “They know they’re not going to play together forever. That’s why last year was such a big disappointment.”

Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are the longest-tenured trio of teammates in the NBA, and the calendar never stops flipping forward.

“This year, I’m sure it’s in the back of their minds,” Popovich said. “They know they’re getting closer and closer to where that group is not going to be there.”

This afternoon, unlike last season, that championship-winning core will be intact to start the playoffs.

Because of that, the Spurs like their chances.

jmcdonald@express-news.net
Twitter: @JMcDonald_SAEN

How should Pop approach the next 3 games?

It’s the NBA’s version of a logic question, juggling minutes and rest for a team over its most difficult stretch of the season.

The Spurs will play three games in the next three nights in three different cities.

Also playing into the equation is the relative health of the three teams and the overall success — or lack thereof — earlier this season against each of them.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will face an undermanned Golden State team that is already looking to next season. The Warriors won’t play David Lee and Andrew Bogut and likely won’t play Richard Jefferson or Stephen Curry tonight.

The Lakers approach on Tuesday night. Playing without Kobe Bryant last week in San Antonio, the Lakers humiliated the Spurs and forced them into their worst performance of the season last week. Andrew Bynum looked like the second coming of Wilt Chamberlain as he dominated the Spurs inside in that resounding loss.

Sacramento will finish the three-game swing Wednesday night. The Kings have talented young players like DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton and Tyreke Evans. That group came into the ATT Center earlier this season and produced the Spurs’ first home loss earlier this season. They then lost a tight five-point game to the Spurs in Sacramento in the rematch.

The Western Conference top seed could still be out there as well, adding another variable to the equation. Popovich has always maintained that he doesn’t coach trying to earn the No. 1 seed if it came at the expense of the health going into the playoffs. But how much easier would the playoffs be if the Spurs knew they would have a potential seventh playoff game at home against any Western opponnet.

It’s clear that Popovich will choose to rest his players in various combinations over the three games.

The question here is for Spurs Nation. How exactly would you set your Spurs roster over the next three nights in order to maximize your opportunities for success — both now and later in the playoffs?

Would you sit the “Big Three” of Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker tonight at Golden State. Would you sit one of them and maybe play two others? Would you have them all back for the Lakers on Tuesday. And how would you play your roster on Wednesday against the Kings?

As always, I am interested in your responses.

NBA playoff preview: A closer look at first round

Express-News NBA beat writer Mike Monroe breaks down the Western and Eastern Conference first-round matchups. E-N Spurs beat writer Jeff McDonald will have a position-by-position analysis of the Spurs-Jazz series in Sunday’s editions:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Spurs (50-16) vs. (8) Jazz (36-30)

Season series: Spurs won 3-1.

Key matchup: Tim Duncan vs. Al Jefferson — Duncan has been one of the five best big men in the league since the All-Star break (17.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG) but Jefferson always has been a tough cover for him because of his strength down low and a reliable mid-range jumper.

Spurs can win if: They force the pace to their uptempo liking and limit Devin Harris’ 3-point shots. Tony Parker must continue being the pick-and-roll master.

Jazz can win if: The scores are in the high 80s and low 90s. They can’t keep pace with the Spurs, but they’ll have a chance in a slow, physical slog.

Prediction: Spurs in 7

(2) Thunder (47-19) vs. (7) Mavericks (36-30)

Season series: Thunder won 3-1.

Key matchup: Serge Ibaka vs. Dirk Nowitzki — Ibaka led the league in blocked shots and will get lots of votes for Defensive Player of the Year. The Mavs can’t win unless Nowitzki takes Ibaka away from the rim and exceeds his season average of 21.6 PPG.

Thunder can win if: Russell Westbrook doesn’t get so frustrated with Jason Kidd’s defense he forgets his primary role is to get the ball to Kevin Durant. Ibaka must prevent Nowitzki from dominating more than two games.

Mavericks can win if: Shawn Marion knocks three or four points off Durant’s league-leading scoring average (28.0 PPG) and Jason Terry remains a factor on offense.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

(3) Lakers (41-25) vs. (6) Nuggets (38-28)

Season series: Lakers won 3-1.

Key matchup: Andrew Bynum vs. JaVale McGee — The Lakers are at their best when Bynum is dominating inside and occupying defenders who might otherwise be focused on Pau Gasol. McGee has the size and athleticism to keep this from happening, but will he?

Lakers can win if: Kobe Bryant does work and Matt Barnes’ ankle heals. Bryant averaged only 17.7 points in four regular season games against the Nuggets. He must score more. They need Barnes as a reliable replacement for Metta World Peace.

Nuggets can win if: Ty Lawson dominates Ramon Sessions and Al Harrington’s torn meniscus (right knee) doesn’t keep him from being the factor he can be at both ends of the court.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

(4) Grizzlies (41-25) vs. (5) Clippers (40-26)

Season series: Clippers won 2-1.

Key matchup: Mike Conley vs. Chris Paul — It’s Paul who makes the Clippers dangerous and Blake Griffin the league leader in dunks. Conley did a terrific job limiting Tony Parker in the 1-8 matchup last spring. He’ll need to duplicate that.

Grizzlies can win if: Zach Randolph can do to Griffin what he did to Tim Duncan a year ago. If he dominates the matchup, the Grizzlies will be in the second round a second straight year.

Clippers can win if: Paul continues to be the crunch-time king. Plenty of these games figure to be decided in the final minute. Nobody in this series is better in the clutch than Paul.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Bulls (50-16) vs. (8) 76ers (35-31)

Season series: Bulls won 2-1.

Key matchup: Derrick Rose vs. Jrue Holiday — Nobody but Rose and the Bulls doctors know how close the reigning MVP is to 100 percent. Everybody knows how important he is, even in this series. Holiday is a gifted perimeter defender. He’ll have to keep Rose from being a game closer if the Sixers are to have a chance at an upset.

Bulls can win if: They slow down the Sixers’ transition offense and dominate up front. They’re still the best defensive outfit in the East, so count on them to slow down Holiday, Lou Williams and Andre Iguodala.

76ers can win if: Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes can defensive rebound and get the fast break rolling with long outlet passes. Hawes has to put a body on Joakim Noah every time a Bulls shot goes up.

Prediction: Bulls in 5

(2) Heat (46-20) vs. (7) Knicks (36-30)

Season series: Heat won 3-0.

Key matchup: LeBron James vs. Carmelo Anthony — The Knicks run lots of isolation plays for Anthony. James is a great defender and will work hard to limit his pal ’Melo. If that diverts James’ focus from dominating the open court, that’s Anthony’s best defensive weapon against him.

Heat can win if: They need Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh available to take the scoring load off James. With Tyson Chandler likely to focus defensively on Bosh, Udonis Haslem must look to be more of a scorer.

Knicks can win if: Who would have believed Steve Novak might be the key to an upset? If his 3-point shooting changes Miami’s defensive focus enough, they can extend this series.

Prediction: Heat in 5

(3) Pacers (42-24) vs. (6) Magic (37-29)

Season series: Magic won 3-1.

Key matchup: George Hill vs. Jameer Nelson — Hill, the former Spurs guard, took over as starter when Darren Collison was injured in late March. Collison’s back, but Hill is a lock-down defender who can keep Nelson from initiating the Magic’s offense.

Pacers can win if: Roy Hibbert dominates the boards as he should in a series without Dwight Howard. He’ll need to score plenty, too, and that shouldn’t be a problem, either.

Magic can win if: Big Baby Davis grows about half a foot overnight. That won’t happen and he’ll be playing on a sore right ankle, too.

Prediction: Pacers in 4

(4) Celtics (39-27) vs. (5) Hawks (40-26)

Season series: Celtics won 2-1.

Key matchup: Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith — Garnett has been a productive center since Jermaine O’Neal went down with an injury. Smith is a power forward, but he will need to match up against KG with Al Horford out and Zaza Pachulia ailing. Smith needs to wear out KG when the Hawks have the ball.

Celtics can win if: They steal home court in Game 1 or 2 because Doc Rivers got enough rest for his stars and Rajon Rondo neutralizes Jeff Teague at the point.

Hawks can win if: Smith prevents Garnett from dominating the defensive glass and scores enough to force the Celtics to double-team, opening lanes for Joe Johnson.

Prediction: Hawks in 7

mikemonroe@express-news.net

Twitter: @Monroe_SA